(Bloomberg) — China has cut energy production from fossil fuels thanks to increased sunlight and water, raising hopes that the world’s biggest polluter may have peak emissions years ahead of schedule. the last one.
Read more from Bloomberg
Thermal energy, which accounts for most of China’s carbon emissions, fell 4.3% in May from a year earlier, the biggest drop since 2022, the statistics office reported on Monday. Hydropower jumped 39% after heavy rain fueled recovery in the world’s most powerful dams. Output from large solar farms rose 29% following a record increase in new panels last year.
The decline in temperature has increased since then, according to the China Coal Shipping and Distribution Association, falling 13% year-on-year in the first half of June.
The data reinforces the estimate that greenhouse gas emissions in China will decrease this year as clean energy will begin to meet the growth in national consumption. China has vowed to increase its carbon footprint by 2030, a key step on its path to zero emissions by 2060.
Still, many other factors must fall into line for that result to be true. And giving a sharp drop in emissions is in any case more important than marking their peak.
Much depends on the direction of China’s economy, and whether Beijing is forced to prioritize carbon-heavy investments to revive growth. Other important electricity generators, such as metallurgical production, manufacturing and infrastructure use, can offset the gains made in energy production. Grid constraints are hampering the deployment of renewables, the solar industry is struggling, and not all of China’s carbon-intensive energy sources are firing on all cylinders.
Nuclear Contribution
The lower oil burning in May came despite smaller contributions from nuclear and wind. Atomic generation is likely to begin ramping up later this decade. Only one reactor was connected to the national grid last year, compared to an expected average of five a year until 2027, according to the World Nuclear Association.
Weaker output from turbines is likely down to a combination of less wind and increased curtailment from excess capacity, according to Dennis Ip, an analyst at Daiwa Capital Markets.
Peaking and then delivering a sharp drop in emissions will require wind and solar plants to continue their peak deployment speeds, but that means more grid infrastructure to prevent wasted energy, as well as keep those industries profitable.
At the same time, the effects of climate change present their own problems. Even with the increase in upgrades, China’s power grid will face increased pressure as summer temperatures increase cooling demand.
Last week, Hebei province reported its electricity demand from air conditioning more than doubled from the previous year. And harsher winter weather also increases demand for peak heating.
On the Wire
The rift between Beijing and Canberra over Chinese investment in Australia’s key mining industry is expected to take center stage on the final day of Premier Li Qiang’s visit.
China’s investigation into EU pork dumping will have little impact on domestic inflation.
Mining of hazardous minerals in Indonesia is enabling the EV revolution.
China needs a green Marshall Plan to build an alliance.
The Government of Canada will buy rare metals from Vital Metals Ltd. in an agreement that will prevent the company from selling its production to a Chinese buyer.
This Week’s Diary
(All times in Beijing unless otherwise noted.)
Tuesday, June 18:
-
China’s May 2nd trade data, including agricultural imports; LNG & pipeline gas imports; the breakdown of oil products business; aluminum oxide, copper and rare commodity exports; import of bauxite, iron and aluminum products
Wednesday, June 19:
-
China May release data for base metals and oil products
-
CCTD weekly online briefing on Chinese coal, 15:00
Thursday, June 20:
-
China sets maximum monthly lending rates, 09:15
-
National Energy Administration keynote in Beijing on driving advanced development, 15:00
-
China data for May 3rd batch, including country breakdown by energy and commodities
Friday, June 21:
-
China weekly steel port reserves
-
Shanghai stock exchange weekly inventory, ~15:30
Saturday, June 22:
Read More from Bloomberg Business Week
©2024 Bloomberg LP
#Chinas #Solar #Hydro #Increases #Highlight #Early #Carbon #Peak